TALKING BUSINESS: John Crocker, Christie and Co

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Friday, February 12, 2010
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This is Exeter

TRANSACTIONAL activity, which dropped from a peak in 2007 to a trickle at the end of 2008, finally found its base level during 2009.

Buyers tentatively moved back into the market and well-priced businesses — from corporate disposal programmes in particular — were keenly sought-after.

Although trading conditions proved tough across all sectors, operators successfully mitigated losses by focusing on reducing costs and providing value for money goods and services.

It is worth noting that most of the business failures in our sectors were due to over-leveraging, or unsustainable rent commitments, rather than poor trading.

Christie and Co's Business Outlook 2010 report shows that the full impact of the recession continued to hamper transactional activity and reduce average property prices across the hotel, pub, restaurant, leisure, care and retail sectors during 2009.

Prices in the hotel sector reduced by 19.5 per cent during 2009, meaning they have now experienced a drop of around 34 per cent since the sector's peak in the third quarter of 2007.

Meanwhile, the pub and restaurant sectors witnessed declines of 20.1 per cent and 18.1 per cent respectively last year, and have both now fallen around 30 per cent from their peaks.

The care sector reported a fall in prices of 11 per cent, while the retail sector experienced a reduction of 9.8 per cent in average prices.

The decline in pub prices reflected the high proportion of "bottom end" sites sold by major pub companies during the period.

Despite transaction levels again being hampered by the wider economic situation, there were encouraging signs of increased activity across all of Christie and Co's specialist sectors during 2009 compared to the previous 12 months.

Distressed cases, which accounted for a large percentage of transactions during 2009, will continue to be brought to the market as trading conditions remain challenging and banks shake out further problem cases.

Funding will continue to be a key issue in 2010. We are seeing the first new-to-sector lenders emerging, which benefit from not possessing satiated loan books. Independent buyers, with a good level of equity, successfully secured the funding they needed to do deals in 2009 and we are confident that individual transaction volumes will be maintained in 2010, with experienced operators again at the forefront of activity.

While the causes of the recent recession are very different to those of previous recessions, there are many extraordinary similarities when we compare their paths. In fact, the movement in transaction volumes, seen since 2007, mirrors what we witnessed in the late '80s and early '90s.

If the transactional pattern continues to follow that of the previous recession, we have reached the bottom of the market and a gradual recovery is in prospect.

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