TALKING BUSINESS: Paul Lewis, branch director at Charles Stanley stockbrokers
WHAT a year 2009 was — bankers got hammered for failing to understand that the taxpayer had kept them afloat, and MPs did untold damage to themselves as they tried to avoid a pay rise but sought payment through a system that could never work.
Dubai, the Capital of Bling, collapsed under a debt mountain until Abu Dhabi came to the rescue. England qualified for the World Cup and we won the Ashes.
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TIMES PAST: Paul Lewis, of Charles Stanley Stockbrokers, looks back on a remarkable year in the financial world GARETH WILLIAMS EE160608_GW02_01
In financial circles the sector went full circle. It started the year looking into the abyss with banks collapsing and the economy entering the second great depression.
Forward came the Bank of England with hand in pocket and promptly pulled out £200bn of crisp new notes. Investors breathed a huge sigh of relief and bought equities in abundance, particularly anything that had bombed out in the previous 12 months.
From the top 100 companies by size, eight out of the top 10 best performers were miners. Kazakhmys, the Kazakh copper producer, produced a return 338 per cent better than the market and those banks which avoided state intervention enjoyed healthy returns of more than 50 per cent better than the market.
Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, which did not avoid intervention, were the two worst performers in the index.
Land Securities, the part owner of Princesshay, was the third largest faller and Resolution, the new owner of Friends Provident at Clyst St Mary, was fourth.
House prices rose as interest rates fell to historic lows and stayed there.
At present there is no immediate relief to savers as interest rates are likely to stay low for an extended period.
As economic recovery gathers pace then high street banks may begin again to lend to smaller businesses and may require further cash to enable such lending. Interest rates to savers may rise as a result but it could be at least June until savers notice any decent improvement in rates. Exeter and the surrounding area was not immune to this evolving story. Princesshay remained relatively occupied although the High Street suffered as a number of retailers closed.
Local tourism received a boost from the staycation syndrome of holidays in Britain. Although the number of people without work rose in the area it followed the national trend, though unemployment in the 18-24 age group is now worryingly high.
So what does 2010 hold in store? A general election, general tax increases, a tough budget from whoever is in power, the World Cup.
And a rising stock market? Probably not. Local shares that should do well include South West Water owner Pennon, being a defensive utility, but Rok and Connaught may encounter a tough headwind as Government expenditure falls and building investment comes under pressure.
Rewards are likely to be found in bonds, commercial property — where recovery is already under way — and cash towards the end of the year as interest rates rise.
The high street consumer is likely to enter Christmas 2010 feeling poorer than at present. Watch this space!











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